After the Bitcoin halving, the trend of btc cad presents a complex game situation, which requires a comprehensive prediction based on miner costs, macroeconomics and historical cycles. According to CoinMetrics data, the third halving of Bitcoin in April 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, directly causing the production cost for miners to soar from CAD 28,000 to CAD 56,000 (calculated at the exchange rate at the time of the halving), forming a rigid price support point. Referring to historical patterns, BTC rose by 5,000% within one year after the first halving in 2012, by 280% in 2016, and by 540% in 2020. Probability statistics show that the probability of an increase within 12 months after the halving is 90%. However, there are differences in this ecosystem: As of August 2025, the total network computing power has dropped by 15% compared to the halving period. Over 3 million older generation mining machines have been forced to shut down due to an energy efficiency ratio exceeding 40J/TH, and the daily selling pressure has decreased by approximately 120 BTC (about 9.4 million Canadian dollars).
The fluctuation of the Canadian dollar exchange rate is amplifying the price fluctuation of btc cad. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25% in 2025, causing the Canadian dollar to depreciate by 6% against the US dollar. If BTC is priced at $75,000 in US dollars, the theoretical cad value of btc should reach CAD 100,500 (at an exchange rate of 1.34), but the actual trading premium is only 2.3%, indicating insufficient domestic liquidity. Key events such as the implementation of new cryptocurrency transaction reporting regulations in Canada in 2024, which require mandatory declaration for transactions over 10,000 Canadian dollars, led to a sharp increase of 300 million Canadian dollars in monthly capital outflows from exchanges. According to a report by Chainalysis, the trading volume share of Bitcoin denominated in Canadian dollars dropped from 5.2% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2025, with its market share being eroded by the USDC stablecoin.
Technical indicators indicate short-term adjustment risks. The 200-day volatility of btc cad dropped from 45% before halving to 25%. However, after the Bollinger band width broke through the historical average of 15%, statistical backtracking showed that there was an 80% probability of a price correction of more than 10%. The open interest in the derivatives market reached a new high of 12 billion Canadian dollars. The funding rate for perpetual contracts remained positive at an average of 0.03% per day, and the accumulation of leveraged long positions increased the pressure of liquidation. The Miner Holdings Index (MPI) has broken through the 4.0 warning line, indicating that large mining pools may sell off their reserves. The case of Marathon Digital cashing out 8,000 BTC (approximately 630 million Canadian dollars) in a single month in June 2025 is a positive example.
The medium and long-term trend is still supported by the supply and demand structure. The asset management scale of Bitcoin ETFs in Canada has reached 7.8 billion Canadian dollars, among which the peak net inflow of the Purpose ETF in a single day was 30 million Canadian dollars. On-chain data shows that the proportion of addresses holding coins for more than one year is 65%, up 12 percentage points year-on-year, and the accumulated shares enhance the resilience against the decline. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against black swan events: Referring to the 2022 LUNA collapse that caused the total market value of crypto to evaporate by 45% in a single week, if global regulations become stricter, such as the new rules of the US SEC being implemented, it may trigger a sharp drop of 10-20%. A stable strategy suggests regular investment combined with hedging, with the allocation ratio not exceeding 5% of total assets. Set a stop-loss when the drawdown exceeds 15%.